Poland’s Orlen cancels long-term QatarEnergy LNG deal amid Iran war disruptions

Poland’s state-owned energy company Orlen has cancelled its long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply contract with QatarEnergy due to force majeure disruptions linked to the Iran war.

Orlen’s decision marks the first time a major long-term client has terminated its agreement with QatarEnergy, underscoring the growing risks that geopolitical tensions pose to global LNG supply chains. The long-term contract, signed in 2009 for 1 million tons of LNG annually and set to run until 2034, had its deliveries begin in 2016.

QatarEnergy has been unable to fulfil its contractual obligations after an escalation of attacks on Gulf shipping. In October alone, Iranian forces were responsible for 37 attacks on tankers, the highest monthly number since March. These disruptions led QatarEnergy to extend its force majeure declaration on LNG exports until the end of the year.

The impact has been significant: 17% of Qatar’s export capacity has been taken offline due to the attacks, amounting to an estimated annual revenue loss of about €17.8 billion. Last month, Qatar shipped 2.7 million tons of LNG, down from 6.2 million tons in February, reflecting the scale of the disruption.

For Orlen, the cancellation adds immediate pressure to secure alternative LNG sources, likely at higher costs, raising concerns over Poland’s energy security and pricing. The move also highlights broader vulnerabilities in European energy supply chains, as the continent continues to diversify away from Russian gas amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

The development may prompt other buyers to reconsider their exposure to Gulf LNG and explore new supplier relationships, including potential deals with U.S. exporters. Meanwhile, QatarEnergy faces the challenge of renegotiating contracts or adjusting its supply strategy to mitigate revenue losses and restore market confidence.