World Bank lifts 2027 copper price outlook by 18%, raising inflation and growth risks

The World Bank has raised its copper price forecast for 2027 by 18%, projecting a level of €11,710 per tonne amid continued robust demand from power grid upgrades and the expansion of data centers. The revision, released on October 28, reflects growing concerns about persistent supply constraints and rising production costs across commodity markets.

The new estimate is only 1.5% below the anticipated 2026 average of €11,863 per tonne, indicating the bank sees little relief from elevated copper prices in the short term. The World Bank also expects its metals and minerals index to rise by 25% this year before easing by 3.3% in 2027, underscoring the broad inflationary pressures facing global industry.

According to Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist at the World Bank, the upward revision signals that "demand for copper will remain strong, driven by investments in electricity networks and digital infrastructure." The continued expansion of data centers and electrification initiatives is expected to underpin demand, even as supply disruptions in countries such as Chile and Indonesia add uncertainty to the market.

For Europe and Latin America, the outlook has far-reaching implications. Higher copper prices could amplify inflationary pressures, complicating monetary policy decisions and raising costs for manufacturers, particularly those in the green technology and construction sectors. In Latin America, supply challenges have been exacerbated by export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of Congo and operational risks in key producers like Chile, home to state-owned Codelco.

The bank’s report also highlights mounting risks from potential U.S. import tariffs and higher energy costs, both of which could squeeze profit margins for producers and contribute to regional supply shortages. However, the price surge may incentivize new mining investment, especially in regions with untapped reserves.

Other metals are experiencing similar volatility: the World Bank projects tin to reach €40,420 per tonne in 2027 (up 22% from April), while gold and silver are expected to decline by 7.6% and 11%, respectively, reflecting shifting investor sentiment.

The World Bank's latest commodity outlook underscores a complex environment for policymakers, investors, and companies navigating the interplay of supply, demand, and macroeconomic risk. For further details, see the World Bank's copper price outlook.